A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
