Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
